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Market Outlook Spring 2024    Take the Win and Be Happy Let's go out and enjoy the outdoors before the heat comes roaring in. We probably have about six to seven weeks. You know I look back on January 12th   when I came out with my stock market prediction, which I do every year, which is a real gamble, but I went ahead and committed it to paper. I said I thought we would end up with an 8% to 12% return for 2024. So far, right on target. I want to go back and reh

Santa Claus Delivers/John's Predictions for 2024/Hey, I Need Your Help...In 1968, Yale Harsch introduced the concept, or the phenomenon, of the Santa Claus Rally. It was a rally held in the last couple of weeks of December. While it does not work every year (nothing does), it sure worked this year. The long-term investor in 2023 who did not get head faked out of the market was rewarded as they should be.John's 2024 PredictionWell, it's about that time when everybody starts making the

Bank Bear Trap             We watched the regional bank industry experience a "Back to the Future" event. You remember the financial crisis when banks failed in 2008. Fortunately, it is not as bad as 2008, but perhaps it could have been avoided. Make sure you read the last section of this newsletter because there is some good news. Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, whose job is to monitor the bank industry, just a few

Is the January Barometer Effect a Myth or a Reality? Before I get to the January Effect, let's just recap last year. As you probably know, nothing good happened in the markets. Jerome Powell (the Fed chairman) was renamed as a serial inflation killer. His mission impossible, which he decided to accept, was to raise rates to kill inflation and hopefully have a soft landing.It was tough on almost all areas of the markets with the Fed raising rates very aggressively, there was no place to hide

How long does it take to recover from a bear market?It was announced on June 14th, 2022, that we are officially in a Bear market for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ index was declared to be in a bear market almost 3 months ago.  Personally, this is my fifth or sixth bear market as an investment advisor and I can't remember one of these bear markets as being fun for anybody.There is hope, but first, let's talk about what got us here. The government passing out trillions of pre-monies ove

“Put The Lime in The Coconut and Drink It All Up”  – Baha Men(1)Do you remember the song Put the lime in the coconut? It was originally released in 1972 by Harry Nilsson and redone by the Baha Men. The narrative of the song presents a woman who had a stomachache late in the evening, and she called her doctor. He didn't want to see her, so he told her to put the lime in the coconut and drink it all up. You may be wondering what this has to do with the stock market.Befor

And, well, 2020 was a whole lot of different. Not only were the fish not biting, but the tide was also going out and we had a category five hurricane that was blowing at us, that came out of nowhere! I find it hard to believe that many people did not have a few, if not many.......From an investment advisor’s perspective, it once again proved to me that you better have and utilize a ...

The Economy is Not Just Recovering but Accelerating ....Certainly, the most frequently asked question I get is, how can the stock market be doing so well when things appear to be so bad? There is 170,000 plus dead from the COVID, millions unemployed, riots in the large cities, millions of businesses shut down. To say that the American public is frazzled would be an ....

BEAR MARKET -No happy talk, but straight talk here. During this recent market meltdown, I happen to look back and noticed that this was the sixth bear market that I’ve experienced since I’ve been an investment advisor. This is the first one that I have

April 2020 Looks Like It’s Going to be a Tough Month - (This may be the understatement of the year)..Supposedly as we head into the peak or the apex of this coronavirus, I hope you are doing well. My family is safe, and I hope yours is also too. I stated in my last newsletter that this is the 6th bear market that I’ve been through as an investment advisor and I can tell you, every bear market feels like ..

What a difference a few months make. Perhaps I don't have to remind you of the market correction/bear market in the last quarter of 2018. It cumulated into what they call "The Christmas Eve Massacre." Traditionally, the market doesn’t go down

Dear Folks, I wrote this in August 2018, but I thought it would be timely, since we are in the tax season now.  I hope you enjoy it ! - Leaving a Legacy for your Family:  Stretch IRA or the Tax Man The other day I was listening to the Beatles channel on Sirius Radio and the song came on called, “The Tax Man” by Eric Clapton and George Harrison.  And it goes like this: ...

Does Your Broker/Financial Planner have a Fiduciary Duty to you ? There is a lot of confusion with the different financial advisor designations. There is very little ...

In 1968, Archie Bell and the Drells unleashed a hit song called “Tighten Up.” More about the song later. With market volatility hitting extreme levels in October and continuing into November, I’m fielding more ....

My 86-year-old Mother wanted to buy weed stocks (7-19-18).I bet you that title got your attention! A month ago I received a phone call from my mother and she asked me a question that I've heard multiple times from retirees over the last four or five years.  How do I exactly buy some of these companies that are selling this marijuana?  My mother said it looked like a tremendous new business opportunity.  I replied to her with what I've been telling investors for years.&nbs

I listened to our new Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, on June 13th, 2018. It was refreshing to hear the new Fed chairman speak in actual plain English. His predecessors, both feds and economists, were so longwinded with so many disclaimers, by the time they got to the meat of the program; most people had already changed the channel. Why should you care? Well, you should probably care if you have a credit card, auto loan, mortgage, more than $10,000.00 in a

I have met the World's Worst Investor (5-22-18). Over the years, I have had many clients comment to me during our initial meeting claiming to be the worst investor. I have finally met the world’s worst investor last week! He was an aeronautical engineer and he creates and runs very detailed spreadsheets on investments. He checks his investments at least two to three times a day. He handles 50% of his money and he has an advisor handles the other 50% of his money. His advisor

I have used an updated version of this chart for 20+ years. It represents what a long-term structural market looks like (sometimes called a secular market). I have received many questions about how long this bull market can last, and I always reference this chart to show that structural markets last for a very long time. Let me elaborate a little more on that. When we look at the chart and it says we are in a structural bull market, it doesn’t mean that you don’t have

You as an investor have witnessed stock market declines of 1,000-points in just the first week or so of February. It's been quite a while since we have seen this kind of volatility in the market. Really, everybody wants to know “Whodunnit?” If it looks like a correction, feels like a correction and acts like a correction

I don’t think anyone can argue that the last year in the stock market was about as good as you could’ve hoped for. However, going into 2018, there are some important key factors that contribute to where we stand: •Tax cuts will hit people’s paychecks and about 80% of workers will see a modest rise of disposable income.(Remember GDP, the most important economic barometer, is composed of 70% of the consumer

What Kills A Bull Market? Not a week goes by when I do not field questions about what direction the market is heading. “The media pronounces that tomorrow at 9:30 sharp the market is going to crash.” “The market is going down because of the presidential job approval”. “The market is toast because of BREXIT.” “The market is going to bust because of the stars aligned and it is the Age of the Aquarius.”